short bonds...

TLT
->has rallied in the last 2 weeks but the rally is not exactly sustained by the volume
->we are way above this month value area and we are even above value area of the last 3 months
->to get short i choose first out of the money put strike in order to obtain a put debit spread strategy, considering that the IV percentile is at 0!
->the expected move for the next 35 days is ~ 3$, so i choose 109 (OTM probability=37%)/106
->what i don't like is that from the start i'm above break even and so i have negative theta, but i'm not by much so is acceptable


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