what i love about options is you don't need necesarly to buy low and sell high or reverse, you can just adjust your strategy to fit the context.
here are some examples of what i mean:
CMG-we are in a new month and test the auction above last month value. the last days up move is made on bearish volume(steady or lower volume) and considering we are above value and under previous peak i see it more like the market is trying to facilitate the auction and we are near by the area where the sellers we will find the price fair to jump in. yesterday market moved the value higher and we close without an excess on upper side which implies an up move continuation for next day.
so you could choose a debit spread or a credit but keep in mind the current volatility is not much above historical but a high probability for the market to be under 330 for near future but don't forget the 1SD expected move for April is ~32$, so partial profits or accepted losses if price approach 330 is required.
GOOG-after market found balance around 800$ and got rejected under 790$ today it decided to seek for new opportunities on the upper side and the initiative up move was made on higher volume with the close on the high.
the volatility is nice above historical and if you chose to sell a put kind of spread we need for stock just to keep above 790$ for example and you keep the nice premium even the stock drops or moves horizontal or even if it has a smaller retrancement. but the probability of success is above 50%...
here are some examples of what i mean:
CMG-we are in a new month and test the auction above last month value. the last days up move is made on bearish volume(steady or lower volume) and considering we are above value and under previous peak i see it more like the market is trying to facilitate the auction and we are near by the area where the sellers we will find the price fair to jump in. yesterday market moved the value higher and we close without an excess on upper side which implies an up move continuation for next day.
so you could choose a debit spread or a credit but keep in mind the current volatility is not much above historical but a high probability for the market to be under 330 for near future but don't forget the 1SD expected move for April is ~32$, so partial profits or accepted losses if price approach 330 is required.
GOOG-after market found balance around 800$ and got rejected under 790$ today it decided to seek for new opportunities on the upper side and the initiative up move was made on higher volume with the close on the high.
the volatility is nice above historical and if you chose to sell a put kind of spread we need for stock just to keep above 790$ for example and you keep the nice premium even the stock drops or moves horizontal or even if it has a smaller retrancement. but the probability of success is above 50%...
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