Is the right time to buy gold?

Alright, it's a fair question. Stocks are down big,  Santa rally it seems like is not gonna happen this year, despite the fact that there was around 70% probability for this...so what now? Maybe bitcoin? Just joking :)
Like I said, let's dive into how to approach the gold idea.
First, let's see what's the correlations with different symbols and get a context. I looked into 6 month correlation, because there is not point in going to far in time, correlations are changing all the time but is should be far enough for somebody who wanna invest in it.

In the correlation matrix from the above we can see the strong correlation between gold and silver and an inverse strong correlation between the silver and US dollar(UUP). An inverse strong correlation we have, when we take a look at the last 6 months, between gold and S&P 500 ETF.

Again, is very important what one thinks that's the optimum approach for himself and look after at the adequate correlation. For ex, considering that I use 45 days to open a trade and if everything works according to the plan I exist in around 25, 30 days...a 3 month correlation works perfect for me.

Let's take a look at some charts:  

GLD 10 year chart

SLV 10 year chart

Both charts from the above have shown high price fluctuations few years ago and an acceptance price area in the more recent years. This areas in auction market theory (AMT) are viewed as high probability with the right approach and in volume spread analysis principles can be viewed as potential accumulation areas. I would not trade based on any of that alone, but I would take all this into account once I decide to take a dive and decide after to the right strategy.

Now comes the question of what do we want from this, what are our expectations? 

Let's put it this way: 

-> if one wants to trade directional, probably implying buying something and considering previous moves(where we can see that silver had a return of almost 500% if we consider October 2008 as a reference point, while gold had just around 250%  in the same period. While we are here is correct to say that the gold didn't dropped as much as silver did. So, silver while could be a more rewarding asset is for sure riskier too) and adding at this the silver is considerably more cheaper than gold, while being in the same time at the lower edge of the high value area, technically silver is the winner in this context. 

Further more both economical and political events would have a say at the future prices. This is implied in the afferent symbols from the futures market where we can see the both are in contango, nothing is seen in the next 45 days that could imply a high volatility in near term prices. One thing to take into account is the Brexit and the effect it will have on the dollar and further more on the correlated symbols...Meanwhile, the latest Commitment of Traders report showed that the “gold position flipped to a net-long for the first time in five months”. While the further increase in the interest rates it will not help the gold either, this 2 are being inverse correlated...
Another smart approach it would be to check the market for both: gold is used more in jewelry, the silver is used in industrial field and the industrial field  is down 15% in the last 6 months. In conclusion if one thinks that industrial field would rebound, it would be smart to buy silver.
                                             

Gold & Silver demand by sector

                             

6 months sector performance

-> my favorite approach though it would be with trading options and I will use a 45 days GLD ETF iron condor strategy skewed to the upside, considering the reverse skew in GLD. Getting a third of what I risk, but having a probability of success of around 60%. More on the skew here.
That's all folks! ;)