Sunday, January 5, 2014

Friday, October 25, 2013

short bonds...

->has rallied in the last 2 weeks but the rally is not exactly sustained by the volume
->we are way above this month value area and we are even above value area of the last 3 months
->to get short i choose first out of the money put strike in order to obtain a put debit spread strategy, considering that the IV percentile is at 0!
->the expected move for the next 35 days is ~ 3$, so i choose 109 (OTM probability=37%)/106
->what i don't like is that from the start i'm above break even and so i have negative theta, but i'm not by much so is acceptable

Saturday, May 18, 2013

it's hard to find a trade where you can avoid to feel like a laggard. this market is irrational or it was irrational couple of moths ago, now it's unreal.
anyway here are some ideas...


->i would look for a neutral/slightly bullish if it goes a bit lower
->with IV percentile in 25% considering the 52 weeks IV but higher then the recent HV we could choose some credit strategy though, depends where is the entry and the view.

->it seems like last week we tested  the previously bottom reversal at the demand area, we had some weakness last week though...
->with implied volatility at 21% and lower than HV some time of debit spread would fit better

->is at strong supply area, it could be an opportunity here.
->IV=23.82% > HV. Friday we traded more considerably more puts than calls compared with the week, this could not mean much though...


->potential weakness
->kind of the same image in TSLA

->gold is at previous low made few weeks ago, i opened a long trade on Friday but i closed it right before market close. i saw poor demand reaction and we closed on the low on higher volume...
->euro is at strong demand area, could be a good opportunity to get long...

Sunday, April 21, 2013

->big gap after earnings, which found more initiative sellers during Friday. the highest volume seen in a while!
->potential demand around 185$ area.

->another gap after earnings, with some degree of hidden sellers.
->watch closely 30.20$ area for more clues, chances for a nice potential trade are significant.

->we are in the biggest down wave since we started the up trend, this could imply a potential reversal or maybe just a retracement which implies a continuation up. either way once it clears, it's a nice trade opportunity.

->bot had a very large down moves, the one in gold was the biggest in last 30 years.
->both days was testing on Friday for any sellers left and if this is confirmed next week we could see a nice up retracement, helped by the short covering which will be triggered.

->both emini S&P and Russell ETF's are at demand area and could be a nice opportunity but for relatively low period of time, considering the context we are.

->i keep watching to sell the gas but i didn't get any confirmation when weakness appeared and frankly in don't get based why price keeps continues to trade up.

->we are at long term demand area and we saw some buyers stepping in last week.

->another stock with nice up side potential, i look for that to confirm next week.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Earnings season is here and this week is rich in companies which reports earning, adding at that the recent moves in market is better to be cautios. All i trade, beside closing the trades i already had and expire in April or my view changed, is intra-day trades. We have though some potential in Japanese Yen which can be materialized in EWJ and FXY (almost 100% IV) and of course the extraordinary moves in GLD and SLV, USO has some hidden buyers, so at least for that needs to be kept close by.
Another idea i like is to watch the move of the next day after earnings and if i already didn't had a position maybe to see how the stock acts if we open with a gap...

Sunday, April 7, 2013

->in the last 3 months we had inside month every next month, so this could be capitulation but what's sure it's we have allot of auction rotations in this area and once the market decide to look for new price to facilitate the trade it will be a significant move.
->if you use the Weiss principle, the up waves start to look tired and the down waves start to get life.
->last 3 weeks closed well off the high
->conclusion: lately we have allot of effort with no result, which implies hidden buyers!
->considering that the current IV=68.67% is almost equal to HV but is much bigger than VIX, i think is  pretty safe for a credit spread strategy.

->last few weeks bond market knew a big rally and i think is kind of hard to predict the direction in bonds, considering all the things which have an influence.
-> /ZB which is the 30 year future contract is pretty bullish but the TLT contract shows some hidden sellers in Friday up move, we had a very high volume closing below the open and well off high.
->watch the future contract for more signs and watch the TLT gap and followed reactions

Thursday, April 4, 2013

->this week revealed that the sellers still have the power over buyers and even though we still have some hidden buyers in the down move after the earnings gap it seems we are not quite there yet. the initiative sellers stepped in after we got in last month VAL and now the next target is 94$ area.

->we made a gap on Tuesday and till now we failed to close it, having auction rotations acceptance in a previous supply area. if we fail to close the gap and go below this week i will look for a bearish strategy to get involved.

->it seems like we have a distribution in this case considering Wyckoff logic and i looked today for a up day on low volume with the close somewhere off high, instead we got wide spread and high volume which could imply strength and responsive buyers once we auctioned below last month value.
either way could be a good opportunity to step in and use a credit spread, considering the IV=~43%

NFLX-confirmed my bearish view and now the above principle could apply...
X-the US steel had a bad time this week but if you watch the volume you can see is much higher then usual volume from last months and Wednesday  we had high volume with the close off low followed by a up close next day, this implies hidden buyers and of course potential strength. a down day next week on low volume followed by a up day with close above this test is the prefect recipe for a strong up move.

CORN-it somehow similar with X with one exception, yesterday closed below the test day but on very low volume though. i think some auction rotation in this area will follow next week but if the things stay the same i favor an up move.
FXI-is at long term demand area and shwos some strength, watch it closely.