Friday, July 4, 2014

If you're a volatility trader, you most likely got run over by the market. I know I did. There's no volatility to sell for a credit nowhere and when you buy VIX/VXX/UVXY you go to a war with a very stubborn, powerful and annoying adversary.
I'm glad that today is 4'th of July. Besides the obvious reasons, I have a worry free day. A day where I don't have to search luckless for trades for a credit, get some theta decay and some POP to CPR my portfolio.

I found an opportunity to sell volatility in WAG and the chart looked in line with the strategy i choose.
First i tried to sell the 67.5 put part of an iron condor strategy, i tried for few days to reopen the trade for a decent credit but without success. I liked the idea of having the break evens very close to 1SD. then, because the lack of other opportunities i rearranged the trade and decided that selling the 70 put after all is not that bad. you can see on the chart the prices and their meanings and below you can see the statistics of the strategy.
even though at one point i was 3 cents below the market, still no fill. I have no credit strategy in my portfolio.
all my trades are directional and most of my previous losses are derived from debit spreads. so what to do? risk more on debit spreads, take what i get in a credit spread, stay on the sidelines, pray not to lose all my money?
this market is like a bad movie. some people whisper that soon it will be the premiere of the 'uprise of the volatility', best movie ever!
all can we do is to manage things in the way to get to be around and see it...

here are few ideas for direction trades:


Sunday, January 5, 2014

Friday, October 25, 2013

short bonds...

TLT
->has rallied in the last 2 weeks but the rally is not exactly sustained by the volume
->we are way above this month value area and we are even above value area of the last 3 months
->to get short i choose first out of the money put strike in order to obtain a put debit spread strategy, considering that the IV percentile is at 0!
->the expected move for the next 35 days is ~ 3$, so i choose 109 (OTM probability=37%)/106
->what i don't like is that from the start i'm above break even and so i have negative theta, but i'm not by much so is acceptable


Saturday, May 18, 2013

it's hard to find a trade where you can avoid to feel like a laggard. this market is irrational or it was irrational couple of moths ago, now it's unreal.
anyway here are some ideas...

BBRY

->i would look for a neutral/slightly bullish if it goes a bit lower
->with IV percentile in 25% considering the 52 weeks IV but higher then the recent HV we could choose some credit strategy though, depends where is the entry and the view.


CAT
->it seems like last week we tested  the previously bottom reversal at the demand area, we had some weakness last week though...
->with implied volatility at 21% and lower than HV some time of debit spread would fit better


EBAY
->is at strong supply area, it could be an opportunity here.
->IV=23.82% > HV. Friday we traded more considerably more puts than calls compared with the week, this could not mean much though...



INTC


SPWR
->potential weakness
->kind of the same image in TSLA




->gold is at previous low made few weeks ago, i opened a long trade on Friday but i closed it right before market close. i saw poor demand reaction and we closed on the low on higher volume...
->euro is at strong demand area, could be a good opportunity to get long...

Sunday, April 21, 2013

IBM
->big gap after earnings, which found more initiative sellers during Friday. the highest volume seen in a while!
->potential demand around 185$ area.

MSFT
->another gap after earnings, with some degree of hidden sellers.
->watch closely 30.20$ area for more clues, chances for a nice potential trade are significant.

YHOO
->we are in the biggest down wave since we started the up trend, this could imply a potential reversal or maybe just a retracement which implies a continuation up. either way once it clears, it's a nice trade opportunity.

GLD, SLV
->bot had a very large down moves, the one in gold was the biggest in last 30 years.
->both days was testing on Friday for any sellers left and if this is confirmed next week we could see a nice up retracement, helped by the short covering which will be triggered.

SPY, IWM
->both emini S&P and Russell ETF's are at demand area and could be a nice opportunity but for relatively low period of time, considering the context we are.

UNG
->i keep watching to sell the gas but i didn't get any confirmation when weakness appeared and frankly in don't get based why price keeps continues to trade up.

USO
->we are at long term demand area and we saw some buyers stepping in last week.

JCP
->another stock with nice up side potential, i look for that to confirm next week.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Earnings season is here and this week is rich in companies which reports earning, adding at that the recent moves in market is better to be cautios. All i trade, beside closing the trades i already had and expire in April or my view changed, is intra-day trades. We have though some potential in Japanese Yen which can be materialized in EWJ and FXY (almost 100% IV) and of course the extraordinary moves in GLD and SLV, USO has some hidden buyers, so at least for that needs to be kept close by.
Another idea i like is to watch the move of the next day after earnings and if i already didn't had a position maybe to see how the stock acts if we open with a gap...

Sunday, April 7, 2013

BBRY
->in the last 3 months we had inside month every next month, so this could be capitulation but what's sure it's we have allot of auction rotations in this area and once the market decide to look for new price to facilitate the trade it will be a significant move.
->if you use the Weiss principle, the up waves start to look tired and the down waves start to get life.
->last 3 weeks closed well off the high
->conclusion: lately we have allot of effort with no result, which implies hidden buyers!
->considering that the current IV=68.67% is almost equal to HV but is much bigger than VIX, i think is  pretty safe for a credit spread strategy.


TLT
->last few weeks bond market knew a big rally and i think is kind of hard to predict the direction in bonds, considering all the things which have an influence.
-> /ZB which is the 30 year future contract is pretty bullish but the TLT contract shows some hidden sellers in Friday up move, we had a very high volume closing below the open and well off high.
->watch the future contract for more signs and watch the TLT gap and followed reactions